Expensive energy.. thoughts and ramifications..
I've been thinking a lot lately about what I should do with the rest of my life. Middle age is great for that. I've also been reading a lot about peak oil, both pro and con. If you've never heard the term, here's a good introductory article: http://cumberlandbooks.com/blog/?p=303. Please don't stop reading this, I'm not, nor will I ever be a pessimist, or even a survivalist. Life is good, God is good, and we can do good and be just fine if we reconnect with Him and take our rightful place under heaven as stewards, NOT owners, of this earth.
That being said, I think in the days ahead there will be some bumps in the economy we will need to plan for and navigate. I don't mean 'plan for' the way your typical survivalist type means it. Preparation, the way I define it is mostly mental, with minimal common sense physical and financial preparation thrown in. I don't think anyone should buy an arsenal and ammunition, (as much as I would like to!) build a bunker, or stockpile food and supplies. Think about it. If the worst case actually does happen, how are you going to defend what you have from the desperate majority? And why should they let you live once they own it, if all you have to offer is perishable 'stuff'? The keys to surviving anything, from bad weather to economic collapse, are skills, knowledge and tools. Skills and knowledge can be further divided into broad, basic things that everyone should know something about, and particular skills you can contribute to your community which will hopefully help make you indispensable.
The Basics: Starting a fire without matches. Basic first aid and wellness. Building rudimentary shelter. Hunting, trapping, fishing, foraging, gardening. Basic animal husbandry. Everyone should know basic survival skills, especially how to keep warm and sheltered under adverse circumstances.
The more specialized skills, the ones that hopefully set you apart, spin off of the basics which are all concerned with maintaining the proper body temperature. The various construction trades are examples derived from the basic need for shelter. But the tools and methods and materials now being used may need to be adjusted to a world that is running out of cheap oil. Another example: modern hunting ammunition depends on sophisticated, oil based processes and ingredients. Old-fashioned flint-lock, muzzle-loading rifles do not. Neither does traditional archery, or even more effective, traditional trapping. Find out how your fathers and grand-fathers did things, and add those skills to your repertoire.
Some occupations (specialties) to consider: Blacksmithing. Actually, any kind of metal working that can produce useful items from recycled materials, especially tool-making. Farriers. Folks who can raise and train draft animals. All forms of woodworking, especially if you're skilled with hand tools. Medicine. Not necessarily the high tech, drug pushing variety, but folk remedies, herbal wisdom, nutrition and wellness. The medical professional of the near future may well be an accomplished gardener and teacher more than anything else. Butchers, tanners, leather workers and furriers. Spinners of wool and other fibers, weavers. Shoemakers. This is far from an exhaustive list, but I think you get the idea. I'm not suggesting you quit your day job, at least not at first, but pick something useful and make it your hobby. Learn about it, assemble a 'how to' library, buy the requisite tools, practice, practice, practice.
A word about tools: Keep them simple, durable and portable. That way you can take your trade with you, if you find yourself in an unfriendly place. Unfriendly places may be that way for a variety of reasons, not least of which is climate and the availability of arable land. The ideal situation is to be on debt-free, fertile land that gets rained on regularly, surrounded by friends and family. Not every one can achieve that, which makes my next suggestion absolutely vital. You must network. At the very least, you must know people who are already living where you would like to be and who would be willing to welcome you into their midst. Don't cultivate friends based on what they can offer you, necessarily, but aim for mutually advantageous relationships. You want to be a useful member of a local community, not just an extra mouth to feed.
That being said, I think in the days ahead there will be some bumps in the economy we will need to plan for and navigate. I don't mean 'plan for' the way your typical survivalist type means it. Preparation, the way I define it is mostly mental, with minimal common sense physical and financial preparation thrown in. I don't think anyone should buy an arsenal and ammunition, (as much as I would like to!) build a bunker, or stockpile food and supplies. Think about it. If the worst case actually does happen, how are you going to defend what you have from the desperate majority? And why should they let you live once they own it, if all you have to offer is perishable 'stuff'? The keys to surviving anything, from bad weather to economic collapse, are skills, knowledge and tools. Skills and knowledge can be further divided into broad, basic things that everyone should know something about, and particular skills you can contribute to your community which will hopefully help make you indispensable.
The Basics: Starting a fire without matches. Basic first aid and wellness. Building rudimentary shelter. Hunting, trapping, fishing, foraging, gardening. Basic animal husbandry. Everyone should know basic survival skills, especially how to keep warm and sheltered under adverse circumstances.
The more specialized skills, the ones that hopefully set you apart, spin off of the basics which are all concerned with maintaining the proper body temperature. The various construction trades are examples derived from the basic need for shelter. But the tools and methods and materials now being used may need to be adjusted to a world that is running out of cheap oil. Another example: modern hunting ammunition depends on sophisticated, oil based processes and ingredients. Old-fashioned flint-lock, muzzle-loading rifles do not. Neither does traditional archery, or even more effective, traditional trapping. Find out how your fathers and grand-fathers did things, and add those skills to your repertoire.
Some occupations (specialties) to consider: Blacksmithing. Actually, any kind of metal working that can produce useful items from recycled materials, especially tool-making. Farriers. Folks who can raise and train draft animals. All forms of woodworking, especially if you're skilled with hand tools. Medicine. Not necessarily the high tech, drug pushing variety, but folk remedies, herbal wisdom, nutrition and wellness. The medical professional of the near future may well be an accomplished gardener and teacher more than anything else. Butchers, tanners, leather workers and furriers. Spinners of wool and other fibers, weavers. Shoemakers. This is far from an exhaustive list, but I think you get the idea. I'm not suggesting you quit your day job, at least not at first, but pick something useful and make it your hobby. Learn about it, assemble a 'how to' library, buy the requisite tools, practice, practice, practice.
A word about tools: Keep them simple, durable and portable. That way you can take your trade with you, if you find yourself in an unfriendly place. Unfriendly places may be that way for a variety of reasons, not least of which is climate and the availability of arable land. The ideal situation is to be on debt-free, fertile land that gets rained on regularly, surrounded by friends and family. Not every one can achieve that, which makes my next suggestion absolutely vital. You must network. At the very least, you must know people who are already living where you would like to be and who would be willing to welcome you into their midst. Don't cultivate friends based on what they can offer you, necessarily, but aim for mutually advantageous relationships. You want to be a useful member of a local community, not just an extra mouth to feed.
Physical preparation: I am referring not to stockpiling, but rather good stewardship of your health. A world without cheap energy will be a labor intensive world. If you're not in good physical condition now, consider this article motivation to do something about it. You don't have to buy anything. Walk more, bike more, avoid elevators, do some push-ups and sit-ups at least 3 times a week. Regular, moderate physical exercise, at least 30 minutes a day, will make you a different person in as little as 6 months. Don't forget to eat right. For fat and starch loving Americans, that usually means more fruits and vegetables, less of the killer whites: white flour, white sugar, white rice and white potatoes. Too much starch mixed with too much fat is literally killing us. It's the main reason we suffer so much heart disease, obesity and diabetes. Meat is healthy in moderation (like everything else!) in proportion to how healthy the animal was. Wild game is the best, followed closely by grass fed domestic stock.
Financial preparation: Get out of debt! Start by resolving now to never again borrow for anything. Then, save a small cushion for a rainy day, because the Lord will test you on your resolve! Once you have your cushion, start accelerating re-payment. Start with the smallest payment first, and when it's gone, apply that payment to the next smallest, and so on, until you are free. For most, this will take 5 to 7 years. An alternate plan would be to sell everything and use the money to start over debt free. Many middle-aged Americans have more house(s) then they need. Consider down-sizing, and moving to a smaller house, in a smaller community, on a bigger lot. Eighty acres in the middle of no-where-ville, even if it's marvelously varied and productive land, will only suit you if you're a farmer already; but it's not for everyone. Most of us are several generations removed from the knowledge and skills needed to adequately steward that much! And, if you have no close neighbors, how will you obtain the things you can't produce for yourself? No more cheap energy will mean the rebirth of community and the death of radical individualism. We may as well head that direction now. And, perhaps this is the main thing the Lord would have us learn through these events anyway.
So, how am I going to spend the rest of my life? I'm going to take my own advice. If absolutely nothing happens and the world continues as it now is, I will be healthier, more useful to my fellow men, and better able to provide for my family. And if the modern world does come unraveled... I will be better equipped to help my neighbors rebuild.
1 Comments:
Greetings Randall,
I figured I would reply to your questions about Y2k preparations here rather than over in Rick's. BTW, I recently relocated to the Settler's area from Seattle. Mainly I did not prepare for Y2K because at the time I had no money. I am a very small cog in the IT world as well, and I saw all my customer's spend big dollars replacing all their systems. In fact, I sometimes think it was all about new toys for IT guys. Until very recently I have lived paycheck to paycheck, my stockpile goal is fairly modest, just enough so that if there were no $ coming in for awhile we could eat. I concur with you regarding collapse. Historically empires rise and fall, and unless God continues to withhold judgement we will get what we deserve, good and hard.
Doug
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